> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://guide.gameclub.com/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://guide.gameclub.com/getting-started/quickstart/market-status.md).

# Market Status

### Global Prediction Market Landscape

Since 2024, prediction markets have rapidly evolved from a niche crypto service into mainstream information infrastructure. During the US presidential election, Polymarket's cumulative trading volume surpassed $10B, prompting major media outlets such as CNN, WSJ, and Bloomberg to cite prediction market data instead of traditional polls. This marked a turning point — prediction markets were no longer seen as mere gambling, but as real-time information pricing tools powered by collective intelligence.

***

### Polymarket

#### Company Overview

| item                | Details                                       |
| ------------------- | --------------------------------------------- |
| Founded             | 2020, Shayne Coplan (New York)                |
| Infra               | Polygon chain + USDC                          |
| Total Funding       | $70M+ (Polychain, Dragonfly etc.)             |
| 2024 trading volume | $10B+ (Single election market recorded $1B+)  |
| Model               | Hybrid-Decentralized CLOB + UMA Oracle        |
| Regulatory Status   | Unregulated (settled $1.4M CFTC fine in 2022) |

#### Growth Background

During the 2024 US presidential election, Polymarket accurately predicted Trump's victory ahead of mainstream polls, creating the narrative that "prediction markets are more accurate than polls." In doing so, it attracted global media spotlight with zero marketing spend.

#### Problem

* Complete block on US users: All US IPs fully blocked following CFTC sanctions.
* Not optimized for Asian users: USDC-based infrastructure creates a disconnect from USDT — Asia's dominant stablecoin — with no Asian local event markets.
* High minimum trade size: Limits participation from small investors.

***

### Kalshi

#### Company Overview

| item              | Details                                                                               |
| ----------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Founded           | 2018, Tarek Mansour · Luana Lopes (MIT)                                               |
| Infra             | Centralized server + USD (fiat currency)                                              |
| Total Funding     | $45M+ (Sequoia, Henry Kravis etc.)                                                    |
| Regulatory Status | Officially licensed by the CFTC (first legally regulated prediction market in the US) |
| Target Users      | US residents only                                                                     |
| Trading Fee       | 1\~2%                                                                                 |

#### Growth Background

Kalshi took the opposite approach from Polymarket. From the very beginning, the company focused on obtaining CFTC approval — a process that took three years of legal proceedings — before launching in 2021 as the first legally regulated event contract exchange in the US.

#### Problem

* US users fully blocked: All US IPs blocked following CFTC sanctions.
* High fees: More than 3x higher than Polymarket.
* Disconnected from the crypto ecosystem.
* Limited market variety.

***

### GameClub's Competitive Edge

* First-mover advantage in Asia: capturing 40–45% of global crypto users across Asia
* BSC + USDT: the most natural infrastructure for Asian users.
* Offering underserved Asian markets that Polymarket and Kalshi don't cover.
* Low fees maintained through token economy integration.


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