Market Status
Global Prediction Market Landscape
Since 2024, prediction markets have rapidly evolved from a niche crypto service into mainstream information infrastructure. During the US presidential election, Polymarket's cumulative trading volume surpassed $10B, prompting major media outlets such as CNN, WSJ, and Bloomberg to cite prediction market data instead of traditional polls. This marked a turning point — prediction markets were no longer seen as mere gambling, but as real-time information pricing tools powered by collective intelligence.
Polymarket
Company Overview
Founded
2020, Shayne Coplan (New York)
Infra
Polygon chain + USDC
Total Funding
$70M+ (Polychain, Dragonfly etc.)
2024 trading volume
$10B+ (Single election market recorded $1B+)
Model
Hybrid-Decentralized CLOB + UMA Oracle
Regulatory Status
Unregulated (settled $1.4M CFTC fine in 2022)
Growth Background
During the 2024 US presidential election, Polymarket accurately predicted Trump's victory ahead of mainstream polls, creating the narrative that "prediction markets are more accurate than polls." In doing so, it attracted global media spotlight with zero marketing spend.
Problem
Complete block on US users: All US IPs fully blocked following CFTC sanctions.
Not optimized for Asian users: USDC-based infrastructure creates a disconnect from USDT — Asia's dominant stablecoin — with no Asian local event markets.
High minimum trade size: Limits participation from small investors.
Kalshi
Company Overview
Founded
2018, Tarek Mansour · Luana Lopes (MIT)
Infra
Centralized server + USD (fiat currency)
Total Funding
$45M+ (Sequoia, Henry Kravis etc.)
Regulatory Status
Officially licensed by the CFTC (first legally regulated prediction market in the US)
Target Users
US residents only
Trading Fee
1~2%
Growth Background
Kalshi took the opposite approach from Polymarket. From the very beginning, the company focused on obtaining CFTC approval — a process that took three years of legal proceedings — before launching in 2021 as the first legally regulated event contract exchange in the US.
Problem
US users fully blocked: All US IPs blocked following CFTC sanctions.
High fees: More than 3x higher than Polymarket.
Disconnected from the crypto ecosystem.
Limited market variety.
GameClub's Competitive Edge
First-mover advantage in Asia: capturing 40–45% of global crypto users across Asia
BSC + USDT: the most natural infrastructure for Asian users.
Offering underserved Asian markets that Polymarket and Kalshi don't cover.
Low fees maintained through token economy integration.
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